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2025 Market Outlook: ‘S&P 500 may hit 6500’

يَـٰٓأَيُّهَا ٱلَّذِينَ ءَامَنُوا۟ لَا تَأْكُلُوٓا۟ أَمْوَٰلَكُم بَيْنَكُم بِٱلْبَـٰطِلِ إِلَّآ أَن تَكُونَ تِجَـٰرَةً عَن تَرَاضٍۢ مِّنكُمْ ۚ

O believers! Do not devour one another’s wealth illegally, but rather trade by mutual consent. (Qur’an, 4:29)

Market Snapshot

▲ S&P 500 +0.67%

▲ SPUS +0.76%

▼  MSCI World Islamic -0.12%

*Market data for last week ending Friday


Last Week’s Review

Consumer Confidence Index: The index dropped to 104.7 in December, below expectations of 113. The sharp decline in consumer expectations highlights growing concerns about the economy heading into 2025.


This Week’s Outlook

Pending Home Sales Index (December 30): The National Association of Realtors will release November’s data, with analysts anticipating a 7.9% year-over-year increase, indicating a potential rebound in the housing market. 

Initial Unemployment Claims (January 2): The US Labor Department’s weekly report is expected to show 220,000 new claims, suggesting a stable labor market as the year begins. 

New Year’s Market Hours: U.S. stock markets will operate on regular hours on Tuesday, December 31, closing at 4 p.m. ET. Markets will be closed on Wednesday, January 1, in observance of New Year’s Day, and will reopen on Thursday, January 2.


Curated Reads

2025 Market Outlook
Experts project the S&P 500 to hit 6,500, driven by earnings growth and favorable monetary policies. Bitcoin’s rise past $100,000 may continue with pro-crypto policies under President-elect Trump. Retailers face challenges balancing tradition and innovation to meet evolving consumer demands. [Read]

Syria’s Economic Renewal Begins
After years of conflict, Syria is taking bold steps toward recovery. New leadership is driving free-market reforms, reducing inflation, and boosting business confidence. Improved access to foreign goods and currencies, alongside diplomatic efforts for sanctions relief, is setting the stage for a brighter economic future. [Read]

China Faces New Challenges Amid Offshoring Surge
Chinese firms invested a record $177 billion abroad in the past year, focusing on emerging markets like Southeast Asia to evade tariffs and manage rising domestic costs. While this offshoring could boost host economies, it raises concerns in China over hollowing out local industries. Policymakers are working to balance global expansion with preserving domestic supply chains, as they navigate these economic shifts. [Read]


Chart of the Week

This week, there is no “Chart of the Week” as we don’t see any new opportunities that align with our investment philosophy. Our focus is on delivering the best research, and when there’s nothing worth highlighting, we’re comfortable stepping back.

All our previous picks remain on track, with no significant changes to report. We’ll provide updates if and when conditions shift, maintaining our commitment to high-quality analysis.


Your Questions

If I follow AAOIFI, does stock purification apply only to dividends? So, if a company doesn’t pay any dividends no purification is required?

No, AAOIFI requires purification every quarter regardless of whether the company pays a dividend. The dividend-only purification is followed by S&P Shariah and others. 

You may ask your questions in our Community or email them to support@muslimxchange.com

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Ayaan Khan
Intern at MuslimXchange and Computer Science student. Focused on broadening financial literacy and promoting educated investing within the Muslim community, while demonstrating that market outperformance is possible through Shariah-compliant principles. Aspiring to enter investment management, with a track record of beating the market by 5.3% over only three months.
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وَلَا تَلْبِسُوا۟ ٱلْحَقَّ بِٱلْبَـٰطِلِ وَتَكْتُمُوا۟ ٱلْحَقَّ وَأَنتُمْ تَعْلَمُونَ And do not mix the truth with falsehood or conceal the truth while you know [it]. (Qur’an, 2:42) Market Snapshot ▼ S&P

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